A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
